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Thermodynamics & Property Cycles

New Zealand Major Report | November 2016

This report provides an estimation of timing for the current market's peak, together with vacancy and absorption projections through an innovative and unique approach.

During the initial phases of property market cycles the demand for space grows. This in turn results in new construction being undertaken and subsequent stock increases. The model presented in the paper allows us to estimate the cycle generated demand and compare it with the known and expected space supply.

Subsequently, the vacancy resultant from oversupply of space is assessed at the closing stages of a cycle. Finally, the techniques developed in the paper allow for an estimation of market peak timing.

The report discusses office and industrial sectors in detail, providing estimations of cyclical market characteristics for each of these in turn.

Thermodynamics & Property Cycles


Moshe Szweizer
Senior Research Analyst
New Zealand
+64 9 359 5428